By Jacinda Chan, Contributor
Relations between Turkey and Israel have been strained. Following Israel’s attacks on Gaza in December 2008, Turkey criticized Israel for their disproportionate attack on civilians. Turkey canceled military exercises with Israel and, in January 2010, aired a television series depicting Israeli soldiers kidnapping Palestinian children and shooting old men.
As a reaction, Israeli Foreign Minister Ayalon seated the Turkish ambassador to Israel on a lower sofa and did not shake his hand to humiliate him. Turkey threatened to recall its ambassador if Israel did not officially apologize, which Israel did. A week later, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak completed his scheduled visit to Turkey, attempting to calm waters but leaving a wound under the band-aid. It was ripped in an Israeli-published report on January 26th accusing PM Erdogan of “fueling” anti-Semitism.
What would happen if Israel and Turkey broke diplomatic relations altogether?
The relationship was based on three mutual benefits: a military relationship, fighting against common Arab enemies, and having the United States as an ally. The worst scenario is that peace in the Middle East would be hard to obtain.
It already is.
Turkey and Israel began relations because of mutual military benefits but these incentives no longer exist. Israel gave Turkey radar systems, missile components, and advanced military equipment, which helped fight the PKK and gave Turkey influence in the Middle East. But Turkey has since found alternatives. The United States, Turkey, and Iraq implemented a trilateral mechanism to fight the PKK. Turkey also has secured influence through wealth and ties to Western allies.
Turkey depended on Israel to hold military exercises to ally against Arab states previously, but Turkey now has friendly relations with most Arab countries. After Turkey cancelled military exercises with Israel, they held them with Syria in January 2010. Israel was also once Turkey’s biggest military export country, trading $1 billion worth of military equipment in the 1990s, but Turkey no longer relies on Israel as their sole trading partner.
Israel depended on Turkey to aid them in any attacks against other Arab states, but would losing Turkish aid make a difference? Israel’s biggest threats were and are Syria and Iran. If Turkey and Israel were to end diplomatic ties, the status of these threats would remain the same.
Syria and Israel still bicker over the Golan Heights, which Israel took in 1967; and Syria supplies Hezbollah and Hamas with arms. Syria wants the Golan Heights back, but not so desperately as to start a war, preferring negotiations. Seeing as Turkey recently lifted visa requirements for Syria, there is the question of what it could mean in terms of access for Hezbollah and Hamas. PM Erdogan recently stated in the aftermath of the Haitian earthquake that Turkey is a peaceful country working towards humanitarian causes. The likelihood of Turkey tolerating any kind of training for armed conflict is slim.
Problematically, Turkey has historically not considered Hezbollah and Hamas to be terrorists and even encouraged Israel to negotiate with them. Because of its peaceful stances, Turkey would likely not engage in wars, but could support both Hezbollah and Hamas through other channels. Just as Turkey aided Azerbaijan in the Nagorno-Karabakh war, it would also support Syria with military weapons if Israel were to attack (as they recently threatened to do if Syria does not stop supporting Hezbollah).
This is the situation with or without Turkish-Israeli ties.
Similar scenarios exist with regards to Iran. Prior to and during the Iran-Iraq war, Ayatollah Khomeini used anti-Israeli rhetoric claiming Israel invaded the Palestinians. Israel–afraid Iran’s rhetoric would become policy—convinced the United States to adopt an isolation policy leaving Iran furious at loosing any hope of gaining influence. To counter this, Iran adopted a policy to undermine the United States in part to get at Israel. Today, Israel fears Iran’s nuclear weapons but, if Turkey were not Israel’s ally, would Iran be more likely to use a nuclear weapon?
Iran might be less likely to use a nuclear weapon on Israel in that scenario. Iran would be thrilled seeing Turkey as an even bigger ally and one who Iran would be more willing to listen to. Since Turkey abhors any nuclear weapons, Turkey can better pressure Iran on its nuclear issue.
What impediment would there be to peace?
Turkey is considered a role model to which other Muslim countries aspire. If Turkey loses its clout with Israel, there will be no mediator between Israel’s “West” and the rest of the Muslim world. Right now the West—particularly the United States—relies on Turkey to be a bridge to the Muslim world. As one Turkish journalist noted, “One part of us has many affinities with it [Muslim culture], yet another part has nothing to do with it.”
Turkey would also lose major backing from Jewish lobbyists who affect the Armenian and Greek Diaspora, but this would not be a drastic loss. The Armenian Diaspora only wants the United States to recognize the 1915 killings of Armenians by the Ottoman Empire as genocide. President Obama still refuses to give in to Armenian Diaspora demands because of the potential damage to diplomatic ties with Turkey. The Greek Diaspora only wants a “fair” solution for Greek Cyprus, which the United States is impartial to. They still send aid to Turkish Cyprus even though the EU has an embargo on them.
By analyzing each factor that the Turkish-Israeli relationship could hinder, the worst scenario is that peace in the Middle East could be harder to realize. Turkey’s peacefulness implemented through their “zero problems with neighbors” policy will not allow any voluntary wars, but the crucial question remains as to whether Turkey and Israel can ever repair ties.
